Super Bowl 59 is set to kick off about 90 minutes from the time I began writing this. I’d like to take advantage of this new platform to share the storyline leading up to the big game, commercial interpretation, halftime show analysis, betting options, and sentiment throughout the game.
Table of Contents
Personal Prologue
The last time these two teams played in the Super Bowl I was at a large party surrounded by friends, good food, and my dog. The game was incredible cinema, providing all the drama one could ask for. Since that game two years ago, these teams have met a few times and continued to put on a show. Below I’ll detail where Super Bowl 59 stands now, mere hours before kickoff.
Super Bowl 59 – Mastermind vs Raw Skill
Sentiment
Leading up to this game I feel there are three prominent public desires:
- I want the Chiefs to make history and threepeat
- I want the Eagles to win to stop the dominant team
- I want Saquon Barkley to go crazy
The Chiefs are one win away from becoming the first team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl 3 times back to back. They are entering the game with a 15-2 record compared to the Eagles’ 14-3. Both have clearly been dominant throughout the season, but the Chiefs have the rings. Additionally, there are grumblings that referees are the reason KC remains a dominant team, squeaking out close wins this season. Meanwhile, Saquon has been running wild! He enters the game with amazing stats (below) and maybe the most entertaining hurdle of all time. All of this happened to Saquon after being traded from the Giants last season. Without Saquon, they floundered to a 3-14 record while also having their QB1 give up on football mid season.
Some of this sentiment was even reflected by United States President Donald Trump in this interview before the game he plans to attend.
JUST IN: President Trump predicts the Kansas City Chiefs will win the Super Bowl after giving a surprise history lesson on Eagles running back Saquon Barkley's uncle.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 9, 2025
Trump also said that Patrick Mahomes' wife is a "phenomenal" woman.
"I guess you have to say that when a… pic.twitter.com/xUt8nTVDle
Offensive Key Players and Stats
QBs
Patrick Mahomes
This year Mahomes has boasted a 93.5 passer rating with a 67.5% completion rate through 3,928 yards and a 26:11 TD:INT ratio. He has been sacked 36 times. On the ground, Mahomes has ran for 307 yards with 2 TDs and 1 fumble.
Jalen Hurts
This year Hurts has boasted a 103.7 passer rating with a 68.7% completion rate through 2,903 yards and an 18:5 TD:INT ratio. He has been sacked 38 times. On the ground, Hurts has rushed for 630 yards with 14 TDs and 4 fumbles.
Quinclusion:
Mahomes has passed for about 1,000 yards more than hurts this year, but doesn’t rush as much. Hurts’ rushing ability and the team’s famous “tush push” are a major threat in the redzone. Comparing these QBs is challenging due to the variation in the way they play. I expect that KC will have more passing yards while PHI will be more efficient in the air.
RBs
Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt has performed well in the 13 games he played this year. Hunt ran for 728 yards with 7 TDs and 0 fumbles. In the receiving game, Hunt went for 176 yards with 0 TDs.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley has performed great in the 16 games he played this year. Barkley ran for 2005 yards with 13 TDs and 2 fumbles. In the receiving game, Barkley went for 278 yards with 2 TDs.
Quinclusion:
Saquon has the edge here, more than doubling the productivity of Hunt despite only having played 3 more games. Hunt has split carries while Barkley was the main back, but I’d expect that Saquon continues to outperform the KC RBs.
Other Notes
- KC’s receiving group will be led by the reliable Kelce, the shining star Worthy, and the veteran Hopkins.
- KC is down their top 2 offensive lineman.
- PHI’s receiving group will be led by the sturdy AJ Brown, the speedy Devonte Smith, and the towering Goedert.
Betting
Vegas:
Spread: Open KC -1.5 (-110) | Close KC -1 (-115) | Public (50%/50%)
ML: Open KC -125 | Close KC -125 | Public (54% KC)
O/U: Open 51.5 -110 | Close 48.5 -110 | Public (81% Over)
CBS:
PHI – 84.5% chance to win
O/U – 55.5 expected
ESPN:
PHI – 56.1% chance to win
Proprietary:
This is a personal Model I have developed and utilized since ~2019
~60% PHI wins in regular time
~35% KC wins in regular time
~5% game goes to OT
Personal Bets:
Overall Sentiment:
In general, I don’t have very much in this game it is a small amount, but enough to add extra oomph to the entertainment. I am betting on things that I both think will happen and that I want to happen and not necessarily profitable plays – unusual for me.
Specific Bets:
KC ML
This wasn’t necessarily a smart bet with the systems voting for PHI. This was an “I want them to win” bet. [-120]
Mahomes & Hurts both have 25+ completions
History doesn’t look very optimistic here, but these Super Bowl games tend to draw out the best of the teams and forces the underdog to complete more passes. With the return and 2 good QBs, this is appetizing . [+1200]
Either Team to Have a Successful 2-Pt Conversion
This seems to be a good bet. Both teams have good red zone power and play aggressively, leading to plenty of opportunities for this to hit. I believe there will be at least one attempt, the hard part of this bet is if it will be successful. [+175]
Any Player 205+ Rush Yards (Super Bowl Record)
This is a pure Saquon play. It is unlikely he will rush for > 205, but it would be something fun to cheer for [+1200]
AJ Brown, Travis Kelce, & Saquon 4+ TDs Combined
This is essentially another Saquon play that I am not confident in. I expect Kelce to get 0-1 TDs, Saquon 1-2 TDs, and AJ Brown 0-1 TDs. This makes the bet unlikely to hit, but fun to watch a handful of players [+800]
Travis Kelce or Saquon Barkley to Score 1st TD
This is yet another play for Saquon that is risky, but if this turns out to be a Saquon game as fans desire, this would be a great start. [+225]
The Game
The game started with a run with Barkley for about 5 yards. A successful and strong way to start the game for the eagles.
PHI seemed to be gaining momentum on their first drive until a TFL on Barkley. The Eagles went for it and completed a great pass to AJ Brown. Unfortunately for them, the refs called offensive PI on an iffy hand fighting play. PHI punted.
After one first down, KC stalled out and Mahomes chucked a dangerous pass while on the run under heavy pressure that ended the drive.
A deep pass to Dotson was completed after a great block by Saquon. Dotson was down just at the 1 yard line where the tush push/brotherly shove got Hurts into the end zone. Chris Jones of the Chiefs seems to have tweaked his neck. Because of his anticipated impact on the game, this will be worth watching.
Pressure on Mahomes led to a quick end to the drive after a high pass to ‘Hollywood’ Brown.
Quarter 2
Dotson (PHI) continues to shine and Chris Jones (KC) is not playing defense. Barkley continues to make impactful blocks. Commentators mentioned that PHI has the NFL’s tallest and heaviest line. Following this, KC brought a full out blitz and brought Hurts down well behind the line of scrimmage, but KC jumped and negated the play. KC brought PHI to 3rd & 10 and brought the pressure again. While Hurts was getting hit on that play, he threw the ball up and it was well short of the receiver and ended up in the hands of a KC defender, stalling PHI’s momentum.
With the interception being made right at the goal line, Mahomes tried to get the Chiefs out of the end zone. A dropped pass by Kelce on 3rd ensured they still had to punt from their end zone. PHI has about 3x the time of possession as the Chiefs. The Chiefs need to find a way to get out of this rut if they want to score before half.
PHI methodically moved down the field with the assistance of a great AJ Brown sideline catch. Despite acting like they were going for it on 4th down, PHI settled for a field goal and snuck it in for a 10-0 lead.
Mahomes took a big sack, continuing the trend of the KC O-Line struggling today. Play #2 was another sack, and Mahomes is getting jittery due to the pressure. Mahomes faced pressure once again and threw a pick 6. In previous Super Bowls Mahomes won, they started out 0-10, but 0-17 is going to be a tough pill to swallow when the Chiefs have no momentum.
KC Hopelessness Sets in
The Chiefs start their next drive off with 2 unsuccessful carries, leaving Mahomes to a 3rd and long. On 3rd down, significant pressure led to another sack and punt for KC. In time’s past, this is where KC would stop PHI and start to build momentum going into halftime. This is the largest deficit in a game for Mahomes in over 50 games.
The Chiefs have backed up PHI to 2nd and 26, but a personal foul on the KC defense reset the downs for PHI. What looked like a promising drive ended on a disconnect between AJ Brown and Hurts, giving KC a chance. They will get the ball with 1:49 and 2 time outs near their own end zone.
One pass, one pick. PHI ball just outside of the end zone.
Two passes, one touchdown. AJ Brown in the end zone, nearly putting this game out of reach with a half still to be played.
KC is dinking and dunking down the field. It feels like they are taking too much time though. Wide open D-Hop has at least 20 easy yards dropped the ball. KC seems to have lost their head. Andy Reid needs to reset this team at halftime if they have any chance.
Halftime Show
Kendrick Lamar enters the stadium as the commentator staff discusses the unlikeliness of a KC comeback. I won’t act as if I am musically inclined, but the performance was cinematic and seemed to be well received. Once SZA entered the stage, things seemed to reach the next level. The American symbolism threaded throughout the choreography was clever and flowed smoothly with the rest of the presentation.
Quarter 3
Entering the half with 23 total yards, the Chiefs start with the ball. With this mountain to climb, KC started with a successful rush attack, doubling the yards they came into the half with. That momentum quickly dried up with two back to back sacks followed by more pressure and a short scramble.
PHI starts their drive with a few short plays followed by a huge scramble to avoid KC’s pressure. This drive continues to be about rushing with Saquon beginning to find his stride and Hurts rushing when the KC blitz comes. Nearing the goal line, KC is holding strong but Chris Jones has gone down. Field goal 27-0.
KC starts off the drive strong with a 10 yard pass for D-Hop’s first Super Bowl catch. After a good rush, Mahomes had an amazing scramble for a handful of yards. He has not given up yet, despite that play coming back on a hold. Kelce made his first catch of the day, but he is short. KC needs to go for it. They go for it and D-Hop wasn’t ready in what was almost a pick 6. This game is essentially over.
There is a sense of the game being completely Unrecoverable
We have heard this before. One throw, one TD. PHI 34-0. 2:40 to go in the 3rd. KC has not passed midfield today.0
Introducing “F It” time. Mahomes threw a bomb to Worthy who got behind the defense and crossed midfield for the first time today. Backyard football keeps the drive going on a flick to Kelce. PHI was given time to substitute despite no KC substitute, frustrating Mahomes. Worthy sneaks into the endzone and makes an amazing diving catch off of an amazing sideline throw from Mahomes. KC goes for 2 and was unsuccessful.
Quarter 4
Methodical progression down the field and more great scrambling got PHI to the KC 30. 37-6 PHI.
One pass attempt, one sack, one fumble. PHI ball. 1 sack away from the team record without a single blitz PHI today.
PHI playing it safe 8:01 left. 40-6.
KC has made it down the field, but took too much time for this to be competitive. Mahomes is still rushing and trying to make things work, which is incredible and speaks to his fortitude. I believe this could damage the future of some QBs, but I anticipate that Mahomes will recover from this. Worthy has helped to get KC back into the end zone on this drive where D-Hop closes things out with his first Super Bowl TD. 2pt conversion attempt was successful on a scrappy crossing route. 40-14 PHI.
KC had a chance on the onside, but did not recover. At this point the Eagles are looking to close the game out with Kenny P. KC’s MVP is likely Mahomes with Worthy as the runner up and O-Line as the LVP. For PHI, Jalen seems to be the hands down MVP in my eyes. Kenny P. could not convert and gives KC the ball back at the 50.
Mahomes tosses a 50 yard TD pass to Worthy. 1 Pass, 1 TD. D-Hop catches the 2pt conversion. 22-40 PHI. This score no longer looks as bad as the game was.
Eagles recover the onside kick. KC has no time outs. This game is over.
Commercials
Advertisements started off with a strong line up from Disney and a Super Bowl hype clip from Tom Cruz.
The Disney heavy commercial theme continued and an amazing nostalgic commercial of old commercials played that brought back great memories for me and likely other football fans.
T-Mobile made a great ad on their partnership with T-Mobile that announces free connection anywhere on Earth. The message was along the lines of ‘If you can see the sky you have signal’.
Cirkul produces water bottles and ran a great campaign where a celebrity purchased 100,000 bottles and sent them to random addresses. People might actually have one shipped to their front door.
Disney had a great commercial about telling stories and turned murder into a good thing through explaining how sad it would be to not have a specific fiction murder story to tell.
Red Bull had a funny commercial with penguins trying to drink red bull so they could fly but the drink was frozen and therefore, the Penguins could not fly.
Coors had a great commercial about Sloths with a case of the Mondays and a case of Coors.
Google had a sentimental commercial that featured functionality of their Pixel 9 phone to hold practice interviews.
Coffee Mate played into shock factor in their cold foam advertisement that featured a tongue partying after tasting the product.
Post-Halftime
Tubi had a strange commercial showing people with heads shaped like hats. This was meant to symbolize who people are and show that Tubi has something for everyone. This was replayed and referred to as a “fleshy cowboy head”…
HIMs and HERs had a very powerful “the system is against us” commercial that is likely to resonate with folks. They are providing ‘simple and affordable’ solutions to some of people’s most painful personal issues like weight loss, ED, and hair loss.
The number of Daytona 500 advertisements is impressive. I did not understand how large of an event this was. After brief research, I wonder if this is a newer initiative to recover from recent history. Compare the below numbers to the anticipated 117-120 million viewers for the Super Bowl.
Jeep had an impactful commercial about freedom and the power of choice.
Bosh power tools had a dumb funny commercial that likely appealed particularly to Buffalo fans by accident.
Tofino’s had a funny mascot murder ad that was reminiscent of the earlier Disney commercial.
Love Hurts commercial ran after the victory, dividing the audience assuming KC fans still had the game on.
Summary
- ‘Fun’ betting is a great way to lost $$$
- $100 Staked, $41.25 remains.
- The refs did no favors to the Chiefs in this game.
- Saquon can be stopped at the cost of opening up the pass game.
- 40-22 is a blowout, but the game was even worse than the score shows.
- KC will still be loaded next year as their injured receivers come back.
- PHI seems to have many returning players and looks to be competitive next year.
- No major commercial innovations came out through this Super Bowl. The T-Mobile + Starlink commercial feels like the largest actual announcement. I can’t tell if this will lead to a stock price spike due to the Elon link and apparent coverage gains, or if this will turn into a ‘sell the news’ moment.
Check out other fun posts here!